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Tuberculosis incidence correlates with sunshine: an ecological 28-year time series study.

Koh, Gavin C K W and Hawthorne, Gemma and Turner, Alice M and Kunst, Heinke and Dedicoat, Martin (2013) Tuberculosis incidence correlates with sunshine: an ecological 28-year time series study. PloS one, 8 (3). e57752. ISSN 1932-6203.

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A potential mechanism for these associations includes decreased vitamin D levels with consequent impaired host defence arising from reduced sunshine exposure in winter. This is the longest time series of any published study and our use of statutory notifications means this data is essentially complete. We cannot, however, exclude the possibility that another factor closely correlated with the seasons, other than sunshine, is responsible. Furthermore, exposure to sunlight depends not only on total hours of sunshine but also on multiple individual factors. Our results should therefore be considered hypothesis-generating. Confirmation of a potential causal relationship between winter vitamin D deficiency and summer peaks in tuberculosis incidence would require a randomized-controlled trial of the effect of vitamin D supplementation on future tuberculosis incidence.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: WF Respiratory system. Respiratory medicine
Divisions: Clinical Support > Infectious Diseases
Planned IP Care > Respiratory Medicine
Depositing User: Preeti Puligari
Date Deposited: 04 Apr 2013 12:54
Last Modified: 05 Apr 2013 14:25
URI: http://www.repository.heartofengland.nhs.uk/id/eprint/19

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